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Raul Candia's avatar

You raise some interesting points. Some I wish I could disagree with although I can’t. Principally that the US should avoid this conflict as much as it can, including fighting off the temptation to arm and train Ukrainians.

But unfortunately you are also making some of the exact points that Prime Minister Chamberlain made after the peace conferences with Hitler before the Poland (oh dear, accidental Hitler reference. I promise it’s the only one) invasion.

My point is that every so often in Europe there is a power that seeks stability and a buffer between itself and “instability”. Now we are calling it Putin but before we have called it Napoleon or Kaiser. Western and Eastern European countries have seen this played out before. The appeasement tactic has been tried before. It doesn’t always work. It doesn’t always fail.

Brings us back to the million Ruble question, what the fuck does Putin want?! My guess, he wants to surpass Peter Grozny as the iconic Russian leader. It’s not about land (that’s just how you keep score), it’s not about economic or military security (that’s just how you identify your opponents) - it’s about winning the respect of Russians that will be born hundreds of years from now. historically you do that by building them an empire.

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Neal Zupancic's avatar

An excellent proposal for a negotiation framework, brought to my attention by a reader: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/09/a-four-step-off-ramp-for-resolving-the-ukraine-crisis-00006769

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