Thanks for the suggestion - I was thinking about this. Since I had Sinopharm six months ago, theoretically my antibody levels would be pretty low if I hadn't had covid since. I'd have to do some research into whether an antibody test can distinguish between old vaccination and recent covid.
"I wonder how many people get sick and don’t want to leave the house to go to such a testing site while sick. How many people, like me, finally go when they feel up to taking a walk, only to get a negative test."
Isn't this everybody? I was convinced I had COVID in March of 2020. There was not a chance in hell I'd go to some clinic where other people who thought they were also sick would wait around to get tested. Since COVID is as contagious as chicken pox, why in the world would the health care system herd people into crowded locations for testing? Wasn't that a main contributor to the spread of it?
I doubt any of the tests have actually ever worked. And when the history of this pandemic is written, I believe that the PCR tests not actually working, and the forcing of people into cramped unventilated testing centers, will both be view as main reason for the rapid spread of the pandemic.
Well, I'm hesitant to universalize my worldview since objectively I'm pretty unusual. I do recall seeing lines of cars in South Korea driving up to booths where medical workers sealed behind plastic gave out swabs and then collected them for testing, and thinking that would be better than going into a poorly-ventilated clinic for a test.
Once I refused a mandatory PCR test because the site where it was being done was completely unventilated. I complained about it and the next round of tests was done in a well-ventilated, larger space, so my complaint apparently had an impact.
But I think there's some utility in PCR testing even if it is hard to get the timing right. I just understand better now why the early test-and-trace efforts apparently kept missing cases.
Just last night my wife and I walked by a jampacked restaurant and bar. Clearly those people had chosen "everything". Meanwhile, my wife is pregnant and we have been on a strict anti-social diet, so we had chosen "nothing". It seems to me that those are the only sensible options — anything in-between is "anxiety central".
Even if that restaurant was half or a quarter as full, the risk is still high. So it makes sense to embrace the risk of eventual Covid exposure if one wants a social life. Meanwhile, it's much easier for my wife and me to "just say no" and not have to go through a constant rigamarole of negotiations and compromises.
For some people, anti-social may not be an option for a variety of reasons. To those, I would simply recommend to get vaccinated, to stay vaccinated, and then to throw caution into the wind.
This is one of the reasons I've shifted ideologically towards collectivism. It seems fundamentally unfair for some people to be able to throw caution to the wind at the cost of circulating a vicious disease that sick, elderly, pregnant, and very cautious people then have to take extra pains to avoid. We've essentially divided society into two classes - the "do nothing" and the "do everything" classes - on the condition that the "do everything class" has to exist only because the "do nothing" class chooses to.
I have come to see societies in which everyone viewed it as a mutual obligation to do their part on behalf of all citizens - Japan, for example - as not just practically better off in this one case, but as morally better in their outlook.
I have no problem committing myself to the anti-social approach, but as a parent I can't justify depriving my children of social contacts outside our immediate family for three years. We avoided covid for the first two years by being extremely cautious and keeping my son online even when other kids were going back to in-person. Of course the year we decided to go in person was the year the family got covid. In the end, I guess you're right - we got vaccinated, threw caution to the wind, and it seems to have worked out okay. But honestly I loved not having a cold or flu or sinus infection for almost two years. I wish society as a whole would step up precautions - from ventilation, to norms of masking when sick or during cold/flu season, to norms of staying home when sick and more flexible working arrangements. I feel like if everyone took some precautions we'd all be better off than with some people taking too many and others taking not enough.
"I wish society as a whole would step up precautions - from ventilation, to norms of masking when sick or during cold/flu season, to norms of staying home when sick and more flexible working arrangements."
I live in Spain. After nearly 2 years of a pandemic, my observations are: a large subset of the population is just as careless/carefree/reckless/clueless in regards to germ exchange as before. Food workers will still go to work sick. Retail workers will still have coughing fits in your face. Etc. Etc. My takeaway is to give up on my wishes of better norms and to avoid fighting windmills. Maybe the next pandemic will teach them.
good piece again. Sorry to hear it got you, glad you are on the mend. And yes, we are all tired of this. (As for getting the shot, isn't there some time that one should wait? My friends who had strong side effects typically had it a short time after having Covid.)
I've seen recommendations to wait 30 days after infection. 90 days if you had treatment with monoclonal antibodies/convalescent plasma, apparently, because these treatments interfere with immune response to the vaccine.
Hi Neal. Thank you for another great article.
And I’m happy to hear you and your family have recovered well.
Regarding the uncertainty. Have you considered doing an antibody test?
When you have Covid, your body develops antibody against both the s and n protein.
But the western vaccines like Pfizer only develop antibodies against the s protein.
So if you test and have antibodies for the n protein, you can know that you had an actual Covid infection.
I’m not sure how exactly the sinopharm vaccine works though. I think I remember that it was the inactivated virus.
So perhaps it creates antibodies against both proteins.
But perhaps it’s worth looking into this to get some certainty.
It won’t be usable for the certification, but at least you will know for yourself.
Thanks for the suggestion - I was thinking about this. Since I had Sinopharm six months ago, theoretically my antibody levels would be pretty low if I hadn't had covid since. I'd have to do some research into whether an antibody test can distinguish between old vaccination and recent covid.
"I wonder how many people get sick and don’t want to leave the house to go to such a testing site while sick. How many people, like me, finally go when they feel up to taking a walk, only to get a negative test."
Isn't this everybody? I was convinced I had COVID in March of 2020. There was not a chance in hell I'd go to some clinic where other people who thought they were also sick would wait around to get tested. Since COVID is as contagious as chicken pox, why in the world would the health care system herd people into crowded locations for testing? Wasn't that a main contributor to the spread of it?
I doubt any of the tests have actually ever worked. And when the history of this pandemic is written, I believe that the PCR tests not actually working, and the forcing of people into cramped unventilated testing centers, will both be view as main reason for the rapid spread of the pandemic.
Well, I'm hesitant to universalize my worldview since objectively I'm pretty unusual. I do recall seeing lines of cars in South Korea driving up to booths where medical workers sealed behind plastic gave out swabs and then collected them for testing, and thinking that would be better than going into a poorly-ventilated clinic for a test.
Once I refused a mandatory PCR test because the site where it was being done was completely unventilated. I complained about it and the next round of tests was done in a well-ventilated, larger space, so my complaint apparently had an impact.
But I think there's some utility in PCR testing even if it is hard to get the timing right. I just understand better now why the early test-and-trace efforts apparently kept missing cases.
on 'either “do nothing” or “do everything”'
Just last night my wife and I walked by a jampacked restaurant and bar. Clearly those people had chosen "everything". Meanwhile, my wife is pregnant and we have been on a strict anti-social diet, so we had chosen "nothing". It seems to me that those are the only sensible options — anything in-between is "anxiety central".
Even if that restaurant was half or a quarter as full, the risk is still high. So it makes sense to embrace the risk of eventual Covid exposure if one wants a social life. Meanwhile, it's much easier for my wife and me to "just say no" and not have to go through a constant rigamarole of negotiations and compromises.
For some people, anti-social may not be an option for a variety of reasons. To those, I would simply recommend to get vaccinated, to stay vaccinated, and then to throw caution into the wind.
This is one of the reasons I've shifted ideologically towards collectivism. It seems fundamentally unfair for some people to be able to throw caution to the wind at the cost of circulating a vicious disease that sick, elderly, pregnant, and very cautious people then have to take extra pains to avoid. We've essentially divided society into two classes - the "do nothing" and the "do everything" classes - on the condition that the "do everything class" has to exist only because the "do nothing" class chooses to.
I have come to see societies in which everyone viewed it as a mutual obligation to do their part on behalf of all citizens - Japan, for example - as not just practically better off in this one case, but as morally better in their outlook.
I have no problem committing myself to the anti-social approach, but as a parent I can't justify depriving my children of social contacts outside our immediate family for three years. We avoided covid for the first two years by being extremely cautious and keeping my son online even when other kids were going back to in-person. Of course the year we decided to go in person was the year the family got covid. In the end, I guess you're right - we got vaccinated, threw caution to the wind, and it seems to have worked out okay. But honestly I loved not having a cold or flu or sinus infection for almost two years. I wish society as a whole would step up precautions - from ventilation, to norms of masking when sick or during cold/flu season, to norms of staying home when sick and more flexible working arrangements. I feel like if everyone took some precautions we'd all be better off than with some people taking too many and others taking not enough.
"I wish society as a whole would step up precautions - from ventilation, to norms of masking when sick or during cold/flu season, to norms of staying home when sick and more flexible working arrangements."
I live in Spain. After nearly 2 years of a pandemic, my observations are: a large subset of the population is just as careless/carefree/reckless/clueless in regards to germ exchange as before. Food workers will still go to work sick. Retail workers will still have coughing fits in your face. Etc. Etc. My takeaway is to give up on my wishes of better norms and to avoid fighting windmills. Maybe the next pandemic will teach them.
good piece again. Sorry to hear it got you, glad you are on the mend. And yes, we are all tired of this. (As for getting the shot, isn't there some time that one should wait? My friends who had strong side effects typically had it a short time after having Covid.)
Thanks.
I've seen recommendations to wait 30 days after infection. 90 days if you had treatment with monoclonal antibodies/convalescent plasma, apparently, because these treatments interfere with immune response to the vaccine.