You may have read that Omicron BA.5 is on the rise and causing a new wave in various countries around the world. There are some indications that this is happening in Georgia as well. If you are interested in mitigating exposure risk, this would be a good time to begin paying attention again.
A friend of mine in Tbilisi posted that he got covid for the first time last week. Curious, I looked at the numbers on stopcov.ge. It says there were 51 cases reported yesterday.
It’s said that every day for over two months.
The news ticker on the site has news articles dated April 27th and April 28th. According to data.ncdc.ge, the 51 cases were actually reported on Monday, May 2nd. That was the last day NCDC reported daily cases.
NCDC reports weekly data for June. 616 cases for the week labelled June 19th. 1058 cases for the week labelled June 26th. It doesn't even say whether those are the start or end dates, but I'm assuming 1058 was for the week ending June 26th.
Now, 1058 cases per week is lower than any week during which I was doing my regular covid risk assessments, and I would call it minimal risk - barely even worth mentioning, given everything we’ve endured. However, since it's a large jump from the previous week, and since covid appears to be picking up in Europe, this jump could indicate the beginning of a new wave here in Georgia.
Obviously circumstances are different here than in these select European countries, but very generally speaking, all of the waves that happened in Europe also ended up happening in Georgia.
Adding to the concern, the most recent Omicron variants - in particular BA.4 and BA.5 - seem to be evading prior immunity. CNN says:
Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 appear to escape antibody responses among both people who had previous Covid-19 infection and those who have been fully vaccinated and boosted, according to new data from researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, of Harvard Medical School.
Anecdotally I’ve been hearing that these variants are also more severe. Studies don’t quite bear that out, but immune escape may mean that someone like myself, who got vaxxed and then ended up with a very mild Delta case due to vax immunity, could get hit much harder than last time, which would explain why many people are saying that Omicron was worse than their first infection.
Still, even if covid is no longer quite as deadly as it once was, I consider the combined risks of death and disability (due to long covid) serious enough to personally want to take measures to lower my exposure risk.
Unfortunately, despite the fact that the numbers we have in Georgia are very low, our testing and surveillance have been relaxed to the point where they can no longer be relied upon to provide a timely warning to those of us who prefer to reduce our risk - or to public officials who might have the power to reduce the severity of the upcoming wave. It looks like we’re getting ~150 cases per day, but in the eight days since that figure was reported, it could well have doubled and we’d have no idea based on official reports.
Last week I took the train from Kutaisi to Tbilisi and back. I was the only one masked. It appears we have completely abandoned mitigation, and I doubt people are ready to pick it up again. Covid fatigue hits hard. Still, summer should offer us a bit of risk mitigation as people spend less time in confined, poorly-ventilated spaces.
In the medium term, I worry that we haven't vaxxed kids in Georgia, haven't improved ventilation, and are looking at a BA.5 wave that could slow burn through the summer and then rage out of control as soon as school starts up again and people are back indoors. Will we even bother trying to isolate classes where a student had a covid case? I suspect we’ll just let it run through every child in the country because we're too tired to care anymore. Maybe I’ll homeschool mine.
Personally I’m going to resume avoiding crowded indoor spaces for now, and mask up when I go into grocery stores or other confined spaces. Unfortunately the places selling N95s seem to have stopped, so I may have to do some searching or order online.
It bears repeating that the risk still appears to be lower than it was at any time from mid-September 2020 through mid-March 2022, based on official reports. I’m not sounding an alarm. But there are early indications that we could be entering a wave that would be worth paying attention to and avoiding. You may also want to factor this possibility into your fall plans.
Good luck out there!
Thank you for the warning!
Btw, regarding N95s… consider getting a envo mask. It’s a reusable N95 with a silicon border that molds to your face shape.
Very easy to get excellent sealing and good filtration.